How I managed to predict the stock market and commodity trends.

How did trying to predict the stock market and commodity trends begin? One day many years ago, during the good old days of DOS, when I was running a small software house, someone asked me if I could write a program for the stock market. You know, those were the days when there was no internet, word processors were text based and there were products such as WordPerfect, EZ-writer, and a host of other text editors and word processors … including mine called WordMate. We were using 6Mhz IBM PC’s … … that is what they called them those days, including the clones, based upon the Intel 8088 or 8086 microprocessor. Microsoft DOS was the operating system of choice to use and everything was stored on 5 and quarter inch floppy disks. Yes, they called them floppy as they really were floppy. You were considered lucky or rich if you had 640k bytes of memory in your machine. Local area networks were non-existent and no one ever suspected something like the Internet would one day take over the world.

Yes, we were the pioneers, going were no man had gone before. We didn’t know what would become of our work, we didn’t know if we could develop a product that would be useful enough for the general public to use and be saleable. We just tried our hand at anything that looked interesting and had market potential. That was the entrepreneurial spirit. We were running blind. There was no one to tell us what would work and what wouldn’t work. We just tried everything and anything to see what worked. We were the cutting edge pioneers, at the forefront of commercialising technology. The race was on, the adrenaline pumping; every heart beat brought us closer to our final destiny. A destiny of quite obscurity in the midst of a ‘me too’ product that had already been done, just yesterday, by someone else in another part of the world. Or a destiny of untold riches, fame and fortune. None of us knew the final outcome. We just raced headlong at break neck speed towards the final outcome. A finality of no return, the end. An end from which would bring forth a new beginning. Life is exciting, isn’t it?

And here I was, many years ago, sitting alone in front of my trusted computer, pondering the consequences of my actions. My parents were totally and vehemently against the idea. “You get a job. Join the government service and get a good pension.” That was their world view of life. Unknowing to them, I was a Class A rebel sitting in their midst, pondering the ultimate question in life. “Should I use C++ or Visual Basic, both supplied by Borland?”

Nobody could pry me away from that slow and trusty PC. After years of using company computers, this was mine … MINE … and ALL MINE. Then my true calling came… that one question … “Can you write something for the stock market?”

And that was the beginning of the end.

 

Difficulties researching on how to predict the stock market trends

I checked around and there was nothing for the stock market. Even data feeds didn’t exist way back then. I began some research, examined charts, and collected data from newspaper cuttings, from KLSE daily diaries. In fact all data suppliers provide KLSE data from about June or July 1987 but I have data from March 1987. Then I thought that it would take me about a year or two to develop a software package. Boy oh boy, was I ever so wrong.

The more I dug, the less I found. People were giving advice based upon hearsay and rumours. There were no proper mathematical techniques or standards. Stock brokers were getting people to splash out on stocks based upon rumours. Just imagine that! You put your million dollars down on a stock because the broker had a fancy to a particular rumour that was going around. Shocking isn’t it? No one knew what would happen tomorrow. No one even had an inkling of where the market was moving to. Yes, technical analysis showed options you could take advantage of but couldn’t predict trends. Japanese candlestick was the most powerful tool then, in my opinion, but it too could not predict the future trends. Imagine your fund manager investing billions of dollars in a stock and yet could not tell you for sure how it would move over the next six months or a year. Yet, they could promise you 8%, 10%, 14% … return on investments. To me it was the case of the blind leading the blind.

I thought I could do the research and write up a software package in one or two years. The charts looked familiar enough as they were similar to the waveforms I had observed on oscilloscopes when I was a young engineer.

 

Too much time spent on researching into how to predict the stock market trends

I was wrong, one year became two years. Two years became three years, three became four. Four became five. By the end of the third year I was ready to quit and I went looking for a job. I thought I could not predict stock market and commodity trends. No one would employee me as there was the large gap in my employment history. That was awful; broke, without income and nowhere to go. I had sold my car, my cameras and just about everything else that was worth anything. Then I tried the venture capital companies and every one of them turned me down. I tried the stock broking firms, the technology parks, the fund managers, private angels, the banks; I have literally tried everyone in Malaysia. Everyone turned me down. The one common theme running across all these people was that “You are wasting your life; you must be crazy as the stock market cannot be predicted.” They had laughed in my face because I was trying to predict the stock market indexes and commodity trends. That was the answer given to me at every turn, at every corner. There was no place for me to hide my shame, was I doomed to failure? Was I on a self-destructive path to permanent poverty? Discouraged and nowhere to go, I took on temporary jobs. I funded my research by working a few weeks here, a few weeks there and then getting back to my research. I worked as a waiter, a typist, a data entry clerk, an unskilled factory hand, a telephone receptionist… etc. The best work of all was selling toys on the streets. I would buy a bag full of toy balls from the wholesalers and sell them for a profit in Bangsar, Bukit Bintang, Petaling Jaya,… I learnt about sales and became a salesman. I became streetwise. I had a stock market game selling in the shops, badly underfunded, I used to take a bus to Bukit Bintang to see my dealers to see if they sold anything. I remember those days; I was under so much stress that my heart used to beat at 120 to 130 beats a minute just sitting in a bus!

 

Gave up trying to predict stock market and commodity trends

Actually, I gave up twice as it was just too difficult trying to predict the stock market and it was difficult to do it alone. There was no theory but programs need mathematical formulae to do the calculations if not software was useless. I had to write software based upon some mathematical equation. I had no choice as that is how software works. I started looking at various types of equations and mathematical techniques and nothing seemed credible. How could I cheat my customers with something that looked impressive but did not work?

 

Discovered the truth about stock market movements and how to predict stock market and commodity trends

Then one day I managed to fit a technique. Why did it work? These were wave functions. How could wave functions work when everyone thought that the market was random? If it was random then they should obey probability theory, not wave functions, right? Why wave functions? I had to dig deeper. What was the ‘Origin of Movements’? Why wave functions? … Oh my God, the markets were oscillating! That was a Eureka moment. The markets weren’t random, they were oscillating. How come we could not see the oscillations or no one noticed them?

As a young engineer I had worked on systems that oscillated within picoseconds, nanoseconds, microseconds, milliseconds, seconds, minutes and hours. And here was something unusual, it was oscillating but we couldn’t see it. Can you take a guess?

Economic or financial systems takes years to move due to their inertia. The period of oscillation is in years. That is why no one saw it. Now I can truly say I have worked on a whole range of systems behaviours from picoseconds to years.

Oh my God, if this is right I must publish before someone else publishes it or else I would have wasted six years of my life to someone with a full salary, promotion prospects and comfortably funded. I would be in ruins, banished to oblivion just like another ‘me too’ product and no one would know that I had tried and succeeded too. For this reason alone, I did my research work in secret. Having worked in the American Semiconductor Industry in Malaysia, keeping secrets was a second nature.

 

Difficulties in wave and probability relationship to predict stock market trend

The difficult part was trying to find out the relation between wave functions and probability theory but after 6 to 7 years of examining charts and running mathematical analysis and building possible models of various types of behaviour I had another Eureka moment. It was one of those moments during the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis in between letters to our Prime Minister, when everything came together and just clicked. There it was staring me in the face, the Origin of Movements, the wave functions dissolved into probability equations right in front of my eyes.

Yes, I was that guy whose letters to the Prime Minister you read. My letters to the Prime Minister during the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis were photocopied and mass circulated to just about every Tom, Dick and Harry. I even met a commodity trader who said “You are the one who wrote those letters with the z, z, equations.” I was shocked how everyone knew of my work. Even the Americans knew about my work and I think it is because of those photocopied letters to the Prime Minister. The Americans sent me a letter – I think it was to confirm my identity.

 

The stone the builders rejected has become the cornerstone

Actually, I started to write to the Prime Minister when he was in Japan and as usual, complaining that no one had predicted the stock market crash. In actual fact the one and only guy who had predicted the crash was right at his door. I had gone to all the technology parks, venture capitalist …etc asking for loans or grants or scholarships or whatever and the Prime Minister’s very own people had turned me down. It is truly amazing how the Lord God makes things come around full circle. Now he was listening to this voice in the wilderness, ‘The stone the builders rejected has become the cornerstone’.

Back in February or March 1997 I was working as a typist in an accounting firm and when the accountants there, found out that I was doing research on the stock market. They asked me what they should do. I told them to sell everything they had, sell, sell, sell because that was the year the market was supposed to crash. Those who believed me saved themselves because after that the stock market crashed. We now know that crash as the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis.

In August 1998 while I was studying rubber technology, during the depressive year of the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis, I told all my classmates to go buy shares, any share, just buy anything as they were at a 12 year historical low. By 1999 many of my classmates had reaped a fortune.

Uncanny isn’t it?

Off course I knew what was happening as I had the wave functions in my hands and by August 1998 knew the stock market was ready for another bull run.

 

Desperate times and desperate economic situation

Do you remember those years? The government of Malaysia (not just Malaysia, all South East Asian countries – Thailand, Indonesia, Phillipines, …) was really desperate to save or salvage the economy. The speculators were driving the currency down so that our currency would become worthless, every business would have been destroyed, and the bulk of the population would have become unemployed. People were losing jobs left, right and center. Loans couldn’t be repaid; cars were being reposed on a massive scale never seen before. Rows and rows of properties were under foreclosure. Our Proton car plant was down to 3 or 4 day week, one shift per day, operations. George Soros was quoted telling our Prime Minister “We will see you at 5.” That is they were planning to plunge the value of the Malaysian Ringgit from US$1 = RM2.70 to US$1 = RM5.00. The Indonesian currency had devalued to one tenth of its original value. No one could get loans as the banks were not lending. In Indonesian, women and children were being raped in the mistaken belief they and not the speculators, were the cause of the crisis. (I was the first to speak out against this, in one of my letters.) In Indonesia, the currency had devalued so badly that many people could not afford to buy locally grown vegetable cooking oil to cook food. Our Prime Minister was calling on all Malaysians to donate their gold jewellery and anything else precious, to the government, to save the currency. The IMF was telling us to raise our interest rates. All wrong moves.

 

I had to predict stock market trend for the Malaysian Government

I explained over many letters what was happening and what to do. I explained about the Observerbility and Controllability Theory which is not in any Economics text book. I explained how to block if not reverse the situation so that the speculators would lose millions if they attack our stock markets. I did an approximate calculation and informed them that the currency should stabilise at US$1 = RM3.80. Newspaper articles showed that Michel Camdessus, then MD of IMF, was informed. I explained how to price the Proton cars to get sales going again – I had used one of my proprietary computer models to provide a new price. I even questioned what they were doing in Indonesia. Some Nobel Laureates tried to say my advice was wrong but I managed to defend myself. If you had read any of my letters you would know that I invented the concept of the “Real Economy” and its mentioned in one of my letters. Now a days everyone uses it as a matter of fact and that shows how far my theories have spread around the globe. Around August 23rd or 24th 1998 I sent the Prime Minister my prediction chart of the September 1998 Bull Run. The chart was predicting the KLSE Composite Index for the next one to two years. On September 2, 1998 the government introduced Capital Controls.

This is the chart I sent the Prime Minister:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And this was the actual KLSE CI movement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Can you see the similarity of the shape of the trend? Stock Markets cannot be predicted? Hah! … ….. daaah…..

Yes, I was in the thick of it. You can check with the Editor of the New Straits Times, our local newspaper, they have all the original letters. It’s amazing, you know, just after the crisis, I have had Tan Sri’s (A Malaysian honorary title) wave at me in the streets (Thank You), I’ve had Tan Sri’s thank me for helping Malaysia (Thank You). I have had policemen come up to me and shake my hands (Thank You). What is amazing is that I had been a recluse all these years and I had never allowed any one to take pictures of me. I was that secretive and yet these people recognised me. I tell you, during those days my house phone was tapped; strangers would call up and ask if I lobbied the government. Anything I said over the phone would be mentioned on TV3, our local TV station. One head hunting company even called me for an interview and wanted my C.V. I went for the interview and was very impressed by their posh office but when I went back to check them out unannounced, two weeks later, there was no such office. The Malaysian government through their newspaper articles had asked me to meet up with one of their Venture Capital fund managers but the Lord God didn’t want me to meet them as when I tried to go and meet them I got onto the wrong bus, then there was such massive thunderstorm that I had to turn back. After my experience with Venture Capital in Malaysia I had a hunch that it was not the right thing to do.

After the crisis I approached our local universities as I was still without income as my ex-rubber-factory boss had not paid my salary in about 9 months to a year. Our local universities gave me too many excuse such as “You have to do a 3 year Diploma in Economics”. That, I figured out, was so that I could pay them for three years and spend the time teaching them my techniques. Another university said “A Ph.D. is for academics only” no wonder Malaysia is where it is. There were many other remarks. Thank God, the Americans came to my rescue. It didn’t take them very long to award me a Doctorate in Economics for my revolutionary ideas. Thank God my Engineering Degree is a British Degree (paid for by my father) and my Doctorate is American (paid for from my pension funds). These are world renowned, reputable, respectable, recognised qualifications and universities.

What a life. Life is exciting, isn’t it? Here you are untutored in the ways of the world but the world has to come back to you for help. It’s what, in Asia, we call Karma, or as our Lord Jesus said “You reap what you sow.” No one can ever disobeys the Lord’s words and live to tell the tale. Do you remember the Ten Commandments, it’s the path to peace and prosperity.

 

 

Other discoveries while researching how to predict stock market and commodity trends

Oh, I forgot what I was about to tell you and got side tracked by historical events. Yes, I made history and now you know the truth. Seek the truth and the truth will set you free. Tell the truth and the truth will set others free.

Remember, I was telling you about how those wave functions dissolved into probability equations? There is no real duality in nature. Wave behaviour and probabilistic behaviour are inherent in all phenomena. They surface under different conditions. A probabilistic phenomenon is a final value phenomenon. That is systems keep oscillating until they stop then they are said to be probabilistic. Remember the Chicken or Egg situation? That is an oscillatory system but whenever you sample the system i.e. look at it, it is either a chicken or an egg, a final value. It is never both.

In school we are taught that probability cannot be greater than one. When you toss a coin there will be 50% chance it will land on its head side or on its tail side. When I was using probability theory to examine markets and market behaviour I discovered that probability can be greater than one and it does occur in financial markets. This is the reason we have bull runs.

I found out that statistical methods cannot be used to analyse the markets. If you know of anyone who is using statistical method to analyse the markets … run … take back your money and run, run for your dear life savings. They don’t have an understanding of market behaviour. It is the wrong technique to use for two simple reasons. Firstly, statistical methods cannot be used because the stock market (any financial market – commodities, …) data is NOT NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED. Secondly, statistical methods are not functions of time hence cannot be used to predict the markets – distribution techniques, unless they are functions of time, cannot be used to predict anything else too. This is my “Certainty Principle”.

18 years down the road, I have reduced the mathematical techniques to 5 easy steps that are done by visual inspection to predict stock market and commodity trends. Amazing isn’t it? That means, just about anyone,… you and me… can predict stock markets and commodity trends many months or years into the future. It’s as simple as cutting and pasting. You don’t need a Ph.D. in rocket science to do that, do you? That is why, I am Malaysia’s best kept secret. Do get the word out, that the financial markets can be predicted.

I am supposed to apply for patents for the techniques but for now I am selling them, these techniques to predict the stock market and commodity makets, by way of a license to use these techniques, very cheap, packaged in a book, Market Theories & Predicting the Stock Market by Visual Inspection – ISBN 978-983-44525-4-4. Do check my web site at on how to predict the stock market and commodity trends for more information.

There are a lot of explanations in the book and just by reading it you will grasp many new ideas not found in Economics text books or the literature. For example, the ‘Distribution of Wealth’ model that I developed explains how to price your products and how profitable your business can be, whereas the ‘Supply and Demand’ curves cannot do this. Furthermore, lately I have begun to suspect that the ‘Supply and Demand’ curves may not be quite right. I have even proposed an explanation as to why businesses in shopping complexes, located among many of their competitors, perform better than if they were located outside, away from competition. Competition is very important for customers to gauge the value of your product or services.

If you know of friends who are heavily invested in the stock market or in commodities or just want to learn more about markets and investing, please ask them to purchase a license/book.

 

 

About the book on how to predict stock market and commodity trends

 

Is this an Alternative Theory of Economics? The author spent 18 years painstakingly examining charts and trying to find the ‘Origin of Movements’, in order to predict stock market and commodity trends. As a result he came out with an alternative theory that can predict market movements. You wouldn’t believe how he has simplified the techniques until you read the book. The book covers many topics and ends up showing how to predict the financial markets such as stock markets, commodity markets, forex…. There is plenty of explanation and many example charts with real data and predictions of commodities and stock market indexes.

No Elliot Wave Theory, No Japanese Candlestick, NO RSI, No Stochastic, No Technical Analysis, No Rumours, No Accounts, No Statistics, No Fibonacci series, No Quantum Mechanics …

Have you ever tried to predict stock market and commodity trends? Not easy, isn’t it? Been wrong too many times? You watch all those charts, showing you RSI, trend lines … what have you, then the market moves in a different direction, right? The author has been there because he was a trader.

 

Real anecdotes

Back in 1992, the author had informed a few friends to invest in the stock market, he had picked some stocks that looked good, at about $0.05 per share. By 1994/5 those shares were worth $5.95 per share. Imagine how much money his friends made? Nothing. They made Nothing … Why? Because they didn’t believe him.

In 1994 a friend of the author told him, he was taking a mortgage on his house to buy some shares. The author spent 4 hours trying to talk him out of it. When he left, the expression on the friend’s face was that of sour grapes, his attitude was that of “you can’t afford the shares so you don’t want me to make easy money from a killing on the market”. The author met this friend by accident a couple of years later but didn’t recognise him. His friend recognised him, ran across the road and came and thanked the author profusely for saving his marriage, his job, his house and everything else.

What did you do in March 2009?

During the height of the 2008/2009 World Financial Crisis (The Recession), when everyone was predicting doom and gloom, using these techniques, he was predicting that commodity prices would rise in 2011. He was right wasn’t he?

 

5 steps to predict stock market and commodity trends

Once you have read the book you will understand that the author has developed and simplified a technique for predicting the market movements in 5 easy steps. He teaches you in 5 easy steps how to create your own charts, forecasting many months and even years into the future.

… Yes, you read that right. Its 5 easy steps to send you on your way to building your fortune.

The 5 steps can be done very quickly by anyone who knows how to use a spread sheet. Simple? Obviously it is simple as the author has carried out 18 years of research and development to provide you with the 5 easy steps to predicting any market.

You too, can learn the techniques and predict stock market and commodity trends like Gold trends, Silver trends, Wheat trends, Soy Bean trends, Palm Oil trends, Coffee trends, Sugar trends,… and many more commodities. Can you see the predictions on the cover of the book. That chart shows you how close the prediction was to actual. … just 5 steps to generate that prediction. Look again, how much money could you have made if you had that Sugar Chart in 2008? So, what did you do while the stock markets were crashing?

I want to know more about how to predict stock market and commodities. Our price is very cheap considering that many financial institutions and companies have poured in millions if not billions of dollars trying to predict stock market and commodity trends …. and have failed. They failed because they had assumed that the markets were random. They failed because they were using the wrong techniques such as statistical analysis. They failed because they were not using mathematical techniques that were functions of time. They had tried Chaos Theory, Quantum Mechanics, Neural Networks, Artificial Intelligence, and a host of other techniques that were not suitable. The author does not know how much many of these companies would have lost in investments as a result of using the wrong techniques.

We would appreciate your feedback and comments. Want to earn money without doing much work, just watch the money roll in? Join us and become our affiliate. Please visit our site www.drpetersnews.com. If you want to know more about the author you could visit http://bachutha.com/about/

You consideration and purchase is very much valued. … Now you know that we can predict stock market and commodity trends when are you getting our book?

Do visit my Financial Systems Blog for more articles on gold, silver, inflation, crashes,….

 

This article how to predict stocks and commodities like gold silver coffee sugar wheatwas researched and written by Peter Achutha